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Seven races. Seven chances. Tuesday sets the pace. Champion Day is the opening act of the Cheltenham Festival, and it has earned its reputation as the most bettor-friendly day on the card. Since 2000, favourites have won at a 37% rate on Day 1 — the highest of any festival day and a full eight percentage points above the four-day average. That is not a coincidence. Tuesday’s card is anchored by championship races where established form counts for more than it does in the open handicaps later in the week.
The 2026 festival reinforced the pattern in emphatic style. Two of the three Grade 1 favourites on Day 1 delivered: Old Park Star justified 15/8 favouritism in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, and Lossiemouth was a dominant 7/5 favourite in the Champion Hurdle, winning by six and a half lengths. Only the Arkle produced an upset, with Kargese springing a 7/1 surprise against the two market leaders Lulamba (11/10F) and Kopek Des Bordes (11/8). But the handicaps told a different story: Johnnywho won the Ultima at 18/1, Saratoga took the Fred Winter at 10/1, and Holloway Queen closed the card with a 12/1 success in the National Hunt Chase. The lesson was familiar — the championship races favour the market, the handicaps reward the diligent.
The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle opens proceedings and delivers the Cheltenham Roar — that wall of sound that tells you the festival has properly begun. The Champion Hurdle provides the afternoon’s centrepiece. In between and around them sit races that range from competitive handicaps to Grade 1 novice events, each with its own form puzzle. The 2027 festival runs from Tuesday 16 to Friday 19 March, with Champion Day scheduled for 16 March. The going in 2026 was Good to Soft (good in places) after a wetter-than-average winter, and early indications for 2027 point toward a similar surface, though March in the Cotswolds is nothing if not unpredictable. Here is the full card, race by race, with the angles that matter for 2027.
The feature race of the day is the Champion Hurdle.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle & Arkle Chase
The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is the festival’s curtain-raiser — two miles for novice hurdlers, and the race that has launched the careers of some of jump racing’s greatest names. The form for this race is typically led by performances at the Dublin Racing Festival and the key UK novice hurdles through the winter.
In 2026, Nicky Henderson’s Old Park Star justified favouritism with a commanding performance, beating Sober Glory (9/2) and Mydaddypaddy (6/1) in a race that showcased the strength of the British novice hurdling division. Henderson’s record in the Supreme is formidable, and the trainer’s ability to produce a horse at concert pitch for this specific race is a proven pattern. The 2026 result also continued a key trend: 5 of the last 12 winners were favourites or joint-favourites, and 11 of the last 12 were in the top three in the betting.
For 2027, the Supreme picture is still forming. Many of the likely contenders are currently in bumpers or have yet to begin their hurdling careers. The 2026 Champion Bumper winner, The Mourne Rambler, trained by Noel Meade, is a name to watch — if he is sent over hurdles rather than staying on the Flat, he will take high rank in the ante-post market. One ante-post fancy already attracting attention is Feel Gut, available at 16/1. Behind the highly-regarded Macho Man in France, he made a perfect start for Nicky Henderson’s yard with a comfortable Junior Hurdle win at Warwick in January 2026, quickening seven and a half lengths clear of a subsequent winner. His jumping is clean, his speed is genuine, and he is open to bundles of improvement.
The key question for any Supreme selection remains whether the horse can handle the unique atmosphere of a festival opener. Some novices freeze when the crowd erupts; others thrive on it. Previous Cheltenham experience — even a run at the November Meeting — is a useful filter, though not a requirement. The trends data is clear: 10 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Supreme, and 10 of the last 12 ran within 66 days of the race. Horses that arrive on the back of a win, with their fitness proven within the last two months, are the ones to back.
The Arkle Chase sits alongside the Supreme as Tuesday’s other Grade 1 novice event, this time over two miles for chasers. The Arkle rewards speed and accurate jumping; mistakes over fences at this pace are usually fatal to a horse’s chance. The 2026 Arkle produced one of the day’s surprises: Kargese, a 7/1 shot trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Danny Mullins, defeated the two market leaders — Mullins’s own Kopek Des Bordes (11/8) and Henderson’s Lulamba (11/10F) — in a thrilling renewal. The result underscored a point that is easy to forget in a race dominated by short-priced favourites: the Arkle is a race where even the most well-regarded horses can find the festival pressure and the demands of two-mile chasing too hot to handle.
For 2027, the Arkle market is already taking shape around the graduates of the 2026 Supreme. Old Park Star heads the market at around 3/1 to 10/3, and the case for him is straightforward: he was a dominant Supreme winner, he has proven Cheltenham form, and Nicky Henderson has a phenomenal record in this race. The concern is whether his only blemish outside novice company — a fall in the Clarence House at Ascot in January 2026 — reveals a vulnerability over fences on sticky ground. But on quicker ground at Cheltenham, with his hood removed, he was a different animal. Rated 174 by Timeform, he is arguably the most exciting novice chasing prospect in training.
Mydaddypaddy is the value alternative at 6/1 to 8/1. Dan Skelton’s charge ran a cracker in the 2026 Supreme, finishing third behind Old Park Star, and his connections believe he would have gone much closer but for significant interference on the run-in. A tall, useful-looking sort with slick and fast jumping over hurdles, he is built like a chaser and is sure to take high rank in the novice chase division. Sober Glory (9/1) and Kopek Des Bordes — who may step up to the Champion Chase rather than the Arkle — are others to monitor as the season progresses.
Look for horses whose chasing debut form includes clean jumping rounds; the ones who have been sloppy over fences in their early starts rarely tighten up enough for a festival-pressure Arkle.
Ultima Handicap Chase & Champion Hurdle
The Ultima Handicap Chase is Tuesday’s big-field betting heat — a three-mile handicap chase that routinely attracts 20-plus runners and produces winners at generous prices. This is each-way territory, not accumulator territory. The Ultima favours experienced chasers who handle soft ground and stay the trip properly.
The 2026 running was a classic example of the race’s capacity for surprise. Johnnywho, trained by Jonjo and AJ O’Neill and sent off at 18/1, surged to victory under Richie McLernon — the jockey’s only ride of the entire festival and his first Festival winner since 2014. The nine-year-old, runner-up in the 2025 Kim Muir, had been patiently ridden throughout and delivered a performance that owed as much to patience as to precision. The 3/1 favourite Jagwar could only manage second. The result was a reminder that the Ultima is not a race for following the market blindly: the favourite’s record here is poor, and horses with proven staying form and a hidden handicap mark are the ones to seek out.
Irish-trained runners have an excellent recent record in this race, consistent with the broader trend of Irish dominance in festival handicaps. For 2027, the Ultima market will not form properly until the autumn, when early-season handicap chase form provides the raw material for analysis. The approach is to identify horses whose handicap marks do not fully reflect their ability — the kind of horse that has been running well without winning, lurking on a mark that the handicapper has been slow to raise.
The Champion Hurdle needs little introduction — it is the race that defines Day 1 and often the entire festival. At Grade 1 level over two miles, this is where the best hurdlers in training meet, and the favourite’s record here is stronger than in most other festival races.
In 2026, Lossiemouth delivered one of the performances of the entire festival, winning by six and a half lengths under Paul Townend for Willie Mullins and making it four consecutive Cheltenham Festival victories. Sent off at 7/5, she was never in trouble, sweeping clear of Brighterdaysahead (7/2) and The New Lion (3/1) with a display that drew comparisons with the great mares of Cheltenham history. The 2026 running was notable for the absence of Constitution Hill, Sir Gino, and State Man — all sidelined — which left Lossiemouth as the clear class act in a depleted field. The question for 2027 is whether she returns to defend her crown or reverts to the Mares’ Hurdle, as she did in 2025.
For 2027, the early Champion Hurdle market reflects the uncertainty around Lossiemouth’s target. She is the 3/1 favourite to go back-to-back, but that price may prove generous if she commits to the race early. If Lossiemouth does return to the Champion Hurdle, she will be seeking to become the first mare since Dawn Run to win the race in consecutive years — a feat that would cement her status as one of the greats. If she reverts to the Mares’ Hurdle, the Champion Hurdle opens up dramatically.
The key contender in that scenario is King Rasko Grey at 8/1, Willie Mullins’s Turners Novices’ Hurdle winner from 2026, whom the trainer has hinted could be pointed at the Champion Hurdle. Old Park Star is quoted at 10/1, though the Arkle is widely considered his more likely target. The New Lion (16/1), third in the 2026 Champion Hurdle and likely to step up in trip for the Stayers’ Hurdle, is a possible but not probable contender.
The value play at this stage is Alexei at 20/1. He ran a blinder to finish fourth in the 2026 Champion Hurdle and could easily have been third but for a bad error at the last hurdle. He is progressive, has strong Cheltenham form, and the market may be underestimating his scope for improvement. Apolon De Charnie, shock 50/1 winner of the 2026 Triumph Hurdle, is also quoted at 20/1 and could be an intriguing contender if connections believe he can step up in class.
A broader historical note: only one Supreme winner has gone on to win the Champion Hurdle the following year in the last 54 years — Constitution Hill. Old Park Star would be bucking a significant historical trend if connections choose that route. The Champion Hurdle is a race where the market usually identifies the winner — the challenge for punters is accepting the short price or finding a way to play it through combination bets.
The wider context is set out in our Cheltenham betting tips.
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle & Plate Handicap Chase
The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle — now run as the McCoy Contractors Juvenile Handicap Hurdle — is a notoriously difficult puzzle to solve. The runners often have just two or three career starts, making form analysis closer to guesswork than science. Field sizes are large, which means four places are paid each-way, and the favourite’s record is poor.
The 2026 running was no exception: Saratoga, trained by Padraig Roche and ridden by Mark Walsh, landed the race at 10/1, with the 5/1 second-favourite Winston Junior finishing second and 40/1 outsider Klycot taking third. The result confirmed the race’s reputation as a graveyard for favourites and a playground for those who study trainer records in juvenile hurdles and identify horses coming from strong French or Irish form lines that the British handicapper may not have fully accounted for.
For 2027, the Fred Winter is impossible to price up at this stage. The juvenile hurdling division does not begin in earnest until the autumn, and the horses that will contest this race are either still on the Flat or have yet to make their hurdling debuts. The approach, as ever, is to treat this race as a standalone each-way play rather than an accumulator component, and to focus on trainer patterns — particularly Irish and French yards with a history of targeting this race with improving juveniles.
The Plate Handicap Chase, run over two miles and four furlongs, is one of the most competitive betting races on the entire festival card. In 2026, Madara delivered a popular victory for Dan and Harry Skelton at 3/1 — one of the few favourites to obligate on a Tuesday card that was otherwise unkind to market leaders. The Skeltons’ horse powered clear by seven and a half lengths from Will The Wise (10/1) and Moon D’Orange (25/1), a dominant display that suggested the handicapper had not caught up with his improvement.
The Plate rewards strong-travelling handicap chasers with accurate jumping, proven stamina at around two and a half miles, and the ability to cope with the unique demands of Cheltenham. Course form is a major asset — four of the last 10 winners had previously placed in one of the big 2m4f-2m5f handicaps at Cheltenham that season. Irish trainers have won five of the last 10 runnings, and their record in this race deserves respect. For 2027, the Plate market will not take shape until the autumn, but unexposed second-season chasers and progressive handicap performers are the ones to monitor.
National Hunt Chase & Day 1
SummaryThe National Hunt Chase closes Tuesday’s card — a stamina test over nearly three miles and six furlongs that attracts staying novice chasers from both sides of the Irish Sea. This race tends to draw less betting attention than the earlier contests, partly because it falls at the end of a long afternoon and partly because the form can be difficult to assess at this extreme trip. But for punters with the patience to study it, the National Hunt Chase occasionally produces strong-value winners.
In 2026, Holloway Queen delivered a decisive five-length victory for Nicky Henderson and James Bowen at 12/1, becoming the second mare to win on Day 1 after Lossiemouth’s Champion Hurdle heroics. The mare’s win was a breakneck burst of speed over the final fences, capitalising on a mistake by the leader Pic Roc. It was Henderson’s second winner of the day, capping a remarkable Tuesday for the Lambourn trainer. The result was a reminder that mares can be underrated in these staying contests, and that horses with point-to-point backgrounds and proven stamina over three miles or more are the starting point for this race. The going matters enormously at this distance; on soft ground, the race becomes a survival test where jumping ability and endurance outweigh pure class.
For 2027, the National Hunt Chase market will not form until the staying novice chase division takes shape through the autumn and winter. Horses with proven form over long distances, or those shaping as though they want every yard of the trip, are often the ones worth keeping on side. Cheltenham form is a significant plus, particularly for runners who have already shown they can handle the track and still find plenty up the hill.
Across the full Day 1 card, the pattern is clear and was reinforced by 2026: the championship races — Supreme, Arkle, Champion Hurdle — offer more predictable form and favour the market, though the Arkle has a capacity for surprises that the other two lack. The handicaps — Ultima, Fred Winter, Plate, National Hunt Chase — are where the upsets happen and where each-way betting earns its keep. A smart Tuesday strategy splits your approach: back the form horses in the Grade 1s, play the value in the handicaps, and resist the temptation to link everything into a single accumulator. Seven races, seven different puzzles. Treat them that way and Tuesday’s card becomes your strongest day of the week.
Setting the Tone With a Sensible Budget
Day 1 sets the tone for your entire festival — both emotionally and financially. A big early win can lead to reckless betting later; a bad Tuesday can trigger desperate attempts to recover. The 2026 festival was a classic case: Old Park Star and Lossiemouth delivered for favourite-backers early, but the handicaps that followed produced a string of double-figure winners that would have devastated anyone trying to chase the market. Set your daily budget before the first race and stick to it regardless of how the afternoon unfolds. The festival lasts four days, and the smartest punters treat each day as a separate event. If you need support at any point, BeGambleAware offers free, confidential help on 0808 8020 133.
