Do favourites win at Cheltenham Festival?

Yes, but less often than most punters assume. Over 25 festivals since 2000, starting-price favourites have won 29.2% of races — roughly three in ten. The rate varies significantly by day: Champion Day on Tuesday produces a 37% favourite strike rate, making it the strongest day for market leaders, while Gold Cup Friday is the weakest, with five festivals recording zero winning favourites on the final day. The type of race also matters enormously — non-handicap Grade 1 events reward favourites far more reliably than big-field handicaps, where the Coral Cup's 8% favourite win rate represents the extreme end of unpredictability. The practical approach is to back favourites selectively in the early-week Grade 1s and treat handicap favourites with considerable scepticism.

What is the best Cheltenham betting strategy for beginners?

Start with a fixed budget for the week and divide it into units — typically 1-2% of your total bankroll per bet. Focus on each-way singles rather than accumulators for your first festival; each-way bets return something if your horse places, which keeps you in the game across four days instead of going bust on a failed four-fold by Tuesday afternoon. Prioritise course form when assessing horses — seven-year-olds with a previous Cheltenham win have a 28% strike rate since 2013, which is a far stronger signal than recent form at other tracks. Check the going on the morning of racing and cross-reference it with each horse's ground preferences. And choose a bookmaker that offers Best Odds Guaranteed and NRNB on any ante-post bets, because those structural protections are worth more than any flashy welcome offer.

How does the course layout affect betting at Cheltenham?

Cheltenham uses two distinct layouts — the Old Course and the New Course — and the difference is not cosmetic. The Old Course, used on Tuesday and Wednesday, features a longer run from the final fence to the winning post and a slightly different line up the Cheltenham Hill. The New Course, used on Thursday and Friday, has a shorter finishing straight and different fence positions. Horses that have handled one layout well do not automatically transfer that form to the other. In 2026 specifically, fence positions on both courses have been adjusted due to damage from a wet winter, creating a slightly altered test even for returning winners. Always check which course your race is on, review your selection's previous record on that specific layout, and factor in the ground conditions on the day — the Hill drains differently depending on rainfall patterns, and a horse that climbed it well on good ground may struggle on soft.

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